Before looking at where we calculate the FTSE 100 is going in the second half of 2022 let’s first take a look at the forecast we prepared in January 2022.
Our forecast highlighted 3 key moves
A Sharp move down during January/ February towards 7,000.
The index fell to 7,225 but then found strong support which propelled it to a new high of 7,688 on the 10th February 2022 – essentially knocking the timing of our forecast out by around 4 weeks. The real fall then began which took the FTSE down to 6,763 on the 7th March.
A move up from 7,000 to 7,700 in March 2022.
The index rose from it’s low of 6,763 to 7,676 on the 11 April 2022 – level very much on target but timing out by the 4 weeks mentioned earlier.
A move down from 7,700 to below 7,000 by the beginning out August.
This is the current move and as you can see it is very choppy but it’s heading towards our target.
Where will the FTSE 100 go next?
We think the FTSE 100 is heading below 6,100 either at the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4 and there could be a good ‘short’ opportunity in the coming weeks around our ‘thick red line’ which we’ve highlighted on many of our previous posts/ tweets. Watch for the FTSE 100 hitting 7,360 to 7,500 in the first few weeks of July for the best risk/ reward short. We wouldn’t recommend longs at this stage as the market could simply continue to fall and the downside risk is far too great.
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