GBP USD Forecast Update March 2021. For those of you who follow us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram you will know we’ve been looking for a short entry point above 143.5. It’s not got there yet and it’s possible it may have hit a short term top just under 142.5 at the end of February – but we are not happy with the timing of this.
We still have our main scenario in place but we have now added a second scenario – both equally possible at time of doing this research as the GBP USD is in “no man’s land”. However, a firm rejection of the “gold” trend line will increase the probability of scenario 2.
Scenario 1 – essentially the same scenario we have had in place since December. A short entry point above 144 which we’ve moved back slightly to mid/ end of April 2021. This is followed by a long entry point in August 2021. This scenario is closely (but not perfectly) aligned with our #FTSE100 scenario 3 – and our gold scenario 2. If the initial short does play out we will look more closely at the following long at a later date as we can see potential downside to the “dotted green lines”.
Scenario 2 – in this instance we see the US Dollar continue to strengthen to mid/ end of April before weakening. This would see a long term bottom in GBP USD. This scenario is closely aligned with our FTSE scenario 2 (which we are about to “push back” a few weeks).
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As always our posts are not investment advice. If you wish to trade or invest based on our analysis you should do so with great caution and consult your financial adviser. Remember never to invest or trade more than you can afford to lose.