Back in March 2022 we forecast that a top was in for Gold so lets take a look and see if that top will be maintained in our Gold Forecast 2023.
Firstly lets take a quick look back at how gold performed in 2022.
Gold peaked at around 2070 on the 8th March 2022 and on the 13th March 2022 we forecast a top was in place. We have placed a number of short positions since and you can see these on Twitter here.
Gold reached a low of around 1614 in September and has since moved up to 1960 in February 2023.
Whilst this was another great opportunity to short – and we did – see here – there is still some potential to short from a higher level in 2023.
These shorting opportunities are imminent and we believe are the lowest risk opportunities for making money on gold in 2023.
Gold Short Opportunity 1
This opportunity should occur between the 10th March and the 19th March 2023. We have a range of 1882 to 1901 with approximately 1900 being the optimal level as this is a 61.8% retracement from the February high. For this move to be valid we really need to see a strong rejection of the of the 61.8% Fib.
Gold Short Opportunity 2
Opportunity 2 is very interesting for us and for the first time in our blog we will divulge how we calculate our entry positions for MAJOR MARKET MOVES.
Position 2 is expected to occur between the 28th March 2023 and the 7th April 2023. This is important to us as this is the end of what we class to be the current strongest cycle in gold. We can’t forecast it to the exact day but those of you who follow us on Twitter know we are generally very accurate to within a week.
Whilst we have a range of 1950 to 1973 on this gold short entry point – just over 1970 in the middle of our date range would be perfect as this would show a retest and a further firm rejection of the 78.6% retracement from the MARCH 2022 HIGH.
Finally, tale a look at that solid white “trend line” at the top of position 2’s entry zone. This is not strictly a “trend line” and we doubt you will see in on any other charts. It’s a “potential channel line” which we have extrapolated from specific cycle tops which have occurred between 2020 and 2022 – these cycle tops would form the lower line of the new channel – if it happens at all!
Which One – 1 or 2?
This is very difficult to call. We believe gold is set for another huge move down with a bottom of at least 1200 in late 2024 and if that does not recover (or occurs early) then we believe gold will fall much lower with no real term recovery for several years.
When these kind of things happen our cycles go a bit screwy – the top comes in a bit earlier and the market moves quickly in the opposite direction – in this case down.
With this in mind we are likely to enter position 1 but be mindful that our stops need to be above position 2.
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