It’s been a tough year for the SPX but if you’ve followed us with our live trades on Twitter you will have made 761.5 points profit. This is a 16% return using the December 31 2022 position as a reference point – so certainly better than “staying in cash”.
Looking forward into the last quarter of 2022 we can see 2 relatively low risk opportunities.
Firstly we are/ were expecting a short opportunity imminently. However the strength of the move on Friday was unexpected and it’s possible we may not get there now. Time is running out for this move and the latest we would accept this as a low risk short would be the middle of next week (early Friday at an “uncomfortable” push).
The more interesting opportunity is mid to late October where we expect to take a low risk long. Our date range on this is October 14th to October 21st and our entry range is 3090 to 3300 – we will hopefully identify a narrower range in due course. This should signal a bottom for the year and, depending on the move up, this could be a multi year bottom – if not then 2023 will be very ugly indeed!
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